Boosted by the easing trade war, rubber still likely to rebound

15 August 2019 | Source from China Rubber Web

Foreign Media: The United States will postpone the imposition of tariffs on some Chinese goods until December 15. The U.S. Trade Representative said that some products would be removed from the remaining $300 billion list, while the 10% tariff on mobile phones, computers, some toys, monitors, some clothes and shoes would be postponed until December 15 (instead of September 1). The elimination process will be completed as soon as possible.

Xinhua News Agency: On the evening of August 13, Liu He, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, Vice Premier of the State Council and Chinese leader of the Sino-US Comprehensive Economic Dialogue, spoke with U.S. Trade Representative Lethizer and Finance Minister Mnuchin at the appointment. China has lodged solemn representations on the tariff imposed by the United States on Chinese imports to the United States on September 1. The two sides agreed to call again in the next two weeks. Zhong Shan, Minister of Commerce, Yi Gang, President of the People's Bank of China and Ning Jizhao, Vice Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, attended the call.

Domestic demand is relatively flat. According to the survey reports of tire factories conducted by several major consulting agencies, it is very good that the situation can be maintained in the next few months.

The spot market has fallen. RMB price of SCRWF fell 100 yuan per ton, and the current mainstream quotation is about 10,350 yuan per ton. The bonded area quotation fell by $5 per ton. Mainstream offers range from $1,315 to $1,325 per ton. External market declines were particularly large, falling between $10 and $20 per ton, with prices ranging from $1325 to $1335 per ton. After several days of strength, synthetic rubber declined. SBR 1502 partially dropped by 100 yuan/ton, and the current quotation is between 10,800-10,950 yuan/ton. BR price in a couple of markets declined 50 yuan per ton, and the mainstream quotation ranged from 11,050 to 11,250 yuan per ton.

The short-term multi-air strength of SHFE rubber futures is relatively balanced. On the supply side, the weather in the main rubber producing areas at home and abroad returned to normal, and the output increased significantly. Although the so-called cost support is still circulating in the market, Thai raw material prices continue to fall, while the price of cup glue has been under 35 baht for a long time, so it is not obvious that low prices restrain supply. On the demand side, the demand is still weak as a whole, and the off-season characteristics are obvious. The environment of the automobile market has changed, and there is no driving force for the improvement of demand in the future. Because demand is relatively stable as a whole, the core factor determining prices is still rubber supply. Fundamentals are still down, the general trend is down, and the short-term trend is turning to the horizontal. Old warehouse receipt of Contract 09 has 350,000 tons, warehouse stock pressure is high, this will still make the SCRWF price continue to the bottom. From the perspective of future market, the SCRWF inventory pressure will still exist for a long term. At present, under the price, the downstream delivery power is insufficient, and the SCRWF price will have downward momentum.

Rubber was boosted by the trade war easing after its bottom of 11,300 Yuan on Tuesday night and returned to the 20-day average again. However, the overall impulse strength of going up was relatively weak. The operational suggestion is to buy at the price of 11,380 Yuan, and not to buy more at a higher price. Long-term basic demand is still a drag. Pay attention to the pressure after stagnation. You should sell out to stop the loss if the price goes below 11,380 Yuan.

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